Storyline
CLARITY Act Senate fight
The CLARITY Act is moving through an increasingly narrow Senate window toward a floor vote as ethics disputes, opposition coalitions, and shifting passage odds keep the bill's fate uncertain.
Timeline
- Fri, Aug 21LatestVerified · 21 Aug 2026
The CFTC Will Write Crypto's Rules "One Way or Another" — as the Industry Campaigns to Revive September 15
CFTC Chair Michael Selig directed staff to prepare crypto market-structure rules in case the CLARITY Act stays stuck, saying crypto "will get rules one way or another," per CoinDesk and Bloomberg Law. Simultaneously, Trump advocated a September 15 Senate vote and Coinbase's Brian Armstrong predicted passage with over 60 votes — a date the Senate hasn't confirmed, after the vote reportedly slipped. Securitize's Redfearn separately said the SEC withheld its tokenization exemption over CLARITY politics.
- Sun, Aug 16Verified · 16 Aug 2026
CLARITY's Senate Vote Slips as Galaxy Puts 2026 Passage at Just 10%
The Senate's expected vote on the CLARITY Act reportedly slipped past its September 15 target, with Galaxy Research cutting its estimate of 2026 passage to 10%, per multiple outlets. Mizuho separately cut BitGo's price target, arguing the delay expands regulatory advantages for already-chartered incumbents. Trump is scheduled to meet Coinbase, Ripple and Robinhood executives at the White House on August 19, with the CFTC chair expected ahead of its August 20 advisory session.
- Fri, Aug 7Verified · 7 Aug 2026
Senate Leaves for Recess Without a CLARITY Act Vote, Pushing Crypto Market-Structure Bill to September
The Senate broke for its August recess without voting on the CLARITY Act, after Majority Leader Thune declined to file the cloture motion required to open a floor vote, per Politico and CoinDesk — pushing the first procedural vote to September 15 at the earliest. The unresolved obstacle remains an ethics provision targeting officials' crypto holdings, including a Tillis-Gallego counteroffer, unanswered by the White House, that would force divestment and add state-level enforcement. Polymarket puts 2026 enactment near 15%, down from over 70% in May.
- Thu, Jul 30Verified · 30 Jul 2026
CLARITY Act Pulled From Senate Schedule as Lummis Alleges a Deliberate Kill and Odds Sink to 27%
The CLARITY Act was removed from the Senate floor schedule before the August recess; lead sponsor Cynthia Lummis told colleagues that continued delay without a specific ask "amounts to a deliberate decision" to run out the clock and kill the bill, and Polymarket odds of 2026 passage fell to roughly 27%. Prosecutors' associations separately urged the White House to change the bill's developer protections — a proposal Trump's crypto adviser rejected. SEC Chair Atkins said the agency will write crypto rules through "Project Crypto" if Congress fails to act.
- Wed, Jul 29Verified · 29 Jul 2026
Senate Shelves CLARITY Act as Ethics Standoff Over Trump's Crypto Interests Drains the 2026 Window
The Senate set aside the CLARITY Act this week for federal nominations and a Russia sanctions bill, after Majority Leader Thune said he doesn't expect the crypto bill to pass before the August 8 recess. Polymarket odds of 2026 passage sit near 37%, down from 82% in February. Democrats are withholding the seven needed votes over ethics provisions tied to President Trump's crypto interests; SEC Chair Atkins says the agency will write rules if Congress doesn't.
- Fri, Jul 24Unverified — not yet reviewed
CLARITY Act Senate Timeline Collapses as Democrats Reject Ethics Provisions and Majority Leader Confirms August Miss
Senate Majority Leader John Thune confirmed the CLARITY Act is not expected to pass before Congress's August recess, with Polymarket prediction-market odds for passage falling from approximately 53% to 33% following release of the updated draft. Key Democratic senators, including Elizabeth Warren and Representative Gallego, formally rejected the ethics provisions as insufficient, with Warren citing Trump's reported $1.4 billion in crypto earnings and framing the bill as benefiting 'criminals and cartels.' Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon publicly backed the bill despite broader banking-industry concerns over stablecoin rules, while the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce separately wrote to the Senate warning the legislation could accelerate deposit outflows.
- Thu, Jul 23Unverified — not yet reviewed
CLARITY Act Reaches Senate Floor as Ethics Dispute Splits Parties
Senate Majority Leader John Thune announced plans to bring the CLARITY Act to a floor vote as early as next week, even without bipartisan agreement, while Republicans released an updated draft banning federal officials including the president from issuing or holding crypto tokens until 2029 and adding developer protections. Democrats, led publicly by Senator Warren, rejected the ethics provisions as insufficient, with key Democratic lawmakers stating the bill 'falls short,' and Polymarket odds for passage dropped to approximately 38%. Supporters including Ripple, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Senator Lummis, and a16z publicly backed the bill, while crypto lobbyists ramped up outreach to Senate Democrats.
- Wed, Jul 22Unverified — not yet reviewed
White House Ethics Deal Clears Last Major CLARITY Act Hurdle as Senate Eyes Floor Vote Before August Recess
The White House reached an agreement with Senate Democrats on the ethics language that had been the central sticking point for the CLARITY Act, with Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly describing the bill as at the '1-yard line' and urging Congress to pass it before the August recess. The compromise includes DOJ enforcement authority over federal officials and prohibits officials from issuing cryptocurrencies, with Senator Cramer and others signaling the 60-vote threshold is now reachable. Polymarket passage odds stood at approximately 40% despite the breakthrough, and a remaining dispute over DOJ power scope represents an open legislative risk.
- Tue, Jul 21Unverified — not yet reviewed
White House Reaches Ethics Agreement on CLARITY Act, Bill Gains Senate Momentum With 14-Day Recess Deadline
The White House reached an agreement on the ethics provisions of the CLARITY Act, resolving the central dispute that had stalled negotiations over Trump's personal crypto holdings. Coinbase's vice chair described the bill as having 'tremendous momentum' in the Senate, and key policy negotiator Patrick Witt deferred military training to remain available during the decisive legislative window. The bill faces a 14-working-day deadline to reach a Senate floor vote before the August recess, with Senator Warner separately urging a careful approach.
- Mon, Jul 20Unverified — not yet reviewed
CLARITY Act Senate Passage Odds Fall Further as Democratic Opposition, DOJ Concerns, and August Recess Deadline Converge
The CLARITY Act faces a critical Senate juncture as the August recess approaches, with passage odds falling amid multiple unresolved disputes. Democrats continue to oppose the bill citing Trump's personal crypto earnings — Senator Warren has demanded disclosure of his 2026 crypto income — while the DOJ's criminal division has raised money-laundering concerns. Senator Lummis has warned that Senate delay could push crypto regulation to 2030, and Polymarket prediction odds for passage have dropped to a record low.
- Fri, Jul 17Unverified — not yet reviewed
Trump Approves CLARITY Act Text as Senate Vote Nears Before August Recess
President Trump approved the final text of the crypto market structure bill and met with senators in a session described as 'hugely positive' to resolve remaining deadlocks before the August recess. Senator Lummis formally introduced the bill, while Senate Democrats continued to raise opposition over ethics provisions related to Trump's personal crypto holdings. A House Financial Services Committee hearing on the CLARITY Act is also scheduled, and the DOJ's criminal division separately raised concerns about the bill's impact on money laundering prosecutions.
- Thu, Jul 16Unverified — not yet reviewed
CLARITY Act Reaches Critical Senate Threshold as Trump Meets Lawmakers, Lummis Prepares Formal Introduction
President Trump met with senators to address the CLARITY Act's ethics provisions, with reports describing the Thursday meeting as 'hugely positive.' Senator Lummis formally introduced the bill, aiming to deliver XRP legal certainty before the August recess. Coinbase publicly backed the legislation, Senate Democrats continued negotiations, and the bill's passage odds shifted as both sides intensified lobbying.
- Sun, Jul 12Unverified — not yet reviewed
CLARITY Act Moves Toward Full Senate Floor Vote July 20 as Treasury Secretary Confirms No CBDC
The US Senate scheduled a full floor vote on the CLARITY Act for July 20, with a Senate hearing set for July 17. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly confirmed the Trump administration will not pursue a CBDC and that the CLARITY Act is forthcoming. Analysis identified the seven Democratic votes needed for passage and the make-or-break window before the August 7 recess.
- Mon, Jul 6Unverified — not yet reviewed
CLARITY Act Misses July 4 Deadline
The CLARITY Act was not signed into law by July 4, establishing the Senate's August 7 recess as the next hard deadline for passage. Senator Lummis publicly emphasized the bill's importance for US crypto finance and technology leadership. Fewer than 10% of senior Capitol Hill staffers surveyed expect a third reconciliation bill to pass, adding uncertainty to the legislative timeline alongside XRP and Bitcoin price analysis tied to the bill's status.
- Thu, Jun 11Unverified — not yet reviewed
CLARITY Act Nears Senate Deadline
The CLARITY Act has encountered a dual setback as ethical negotiations collapsed, leaving a 31-day window before Senate recess to advance the crypto market structure legislation.